4 Greece new-builds. One consistent set of numbers.
Before you commit, read the model. For each Greece development we take on, we build a detailed ten-year financial analysis — a full annual cash-flow, the market's recorded capital growth, dated rental comparables, the complete cost stack, and a modelled ten-year IRR. The evidence sits beside every figure.
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Every development, on the same ten-year basis.
The reference case runs each asset at the market's recent historical growth rate (Central Bank of Cyprus index) with sourced, dated rents — shown as evidence, not a forecast. IRR is one axis; delivery risk, location and liquidity differ by development. The full cash-flow, comparables and method sit behind every figure.
| Development | Modelled unit · delivery | 10-yr IRR |
|---|---|---|
1 Voula Residences Voula, Athens Riviera | €530,000 Stated Jan 2026 — completion unverified | 11.9% 0%-growth case 2.5% |
2 Piraeus Port Project Piraeus, Attica | €250,000 Q4 2027 (vendor-stated) | 10.3% 0%-growth case 0.4% |
3 Lopes Residences Paiania, Attica | €300,000 Q1 2027 (vendor-stated) | 10.2% 0%-growth case 0.4% |
4 Marina View Beachfront Residences Porto Rafti, Attica | €478,500 March 2028 (vendor-stated) | 9.6% 0%-growth case -0.2% |
Reference case = the market's recent index record, shown as evidence, not a forecast; the 0%-growth case holds capital growth flat with rents flat. Both scenarios, full cash-flows and every source are in the Financial Outlook. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
What stands behind each number.
A full ten-year cash-flow
Every year from acquisition to exit — rent, management, re-letting, fixed costs, maintenance, net yield — for the specific named unit at its stated price.
The historical capital-growth record
The Central Bank of Cyprus house-price index for the exact market, annualised and dated, with the latest year-on-year print beside it — historical evidence, not a projection.
Dated rental comparables
Live asking rents from the specific micro-area, individually checked — the evidence the income assumptions are built on. Asking rents, not guaranteed rents.
The full cost stack, both sides
Purchase taxes, VAT, notary and legal in full; the residence-programme cost shown separately, so it never flatters the asset return.
A ten-year IRR sensitivity grid
Returns across a range of rents and growth assumptions, plus a downside case — prices flat for the decade and rents held flat — so the weaker outcomes are visible too.
The route to residence
Whether the purchase can qualify for Cyprus permanent residence, how, and what eligible family members gain — for many families, a central reason for the purchase.
Voula Residences — 11.9% projected ten-year IRR.
Voula is the only Greek development in this portfolio built for the Golden Visa itself: three residences meet the required 120 m² size test and may qualify at the €800,000+ threshold, set on the Athens Riviera. Asking rents of €2,240–€2,500/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~3.5% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 11.9% (€1,014,007 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €136,229 (2.5% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. Three residences (G1 133.5 m², B1 142.7 m², B2 135.3 m² net) meet the Golden-Visa 120 m² size test and may qualify if the chosen unit is priced ≥€800,000 (prices on application) — the desk confirms in writing before commitment.
Read the full Voula Residences analysis- 10-year cash-flow
- Recorded growth record
- Dated rent comps
- Full cost stack
- IRR sensitivity
- Residence route
How these numbers are built.
Every rent and growth figure carries its source and its date. Material assumptions and source data are identified wherever practicable.
Each model includes a downside case — 0% growth, rents held flat, costs still rising — so you see what happens if the market goes nowhere, not only the reference case.
We may earn a fee from a developer, and we say so on the page. The residence cost is separated out so it never flatters the asset return.
We publish a modelled ten-year cash-flow, its sources and its downside case for every development we cover. A home that still works for a family a decade on is the result that matters.
All 4 Greece Financial Outlooks — one PDF.
Every Outlook in full, led by the comparison you've just read. Sent to your inbox on request; a Kestrel adviser is on hand to talk it through whenever you're ready.
Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.
This research is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com