Kestrel Research · Financial Outlook · 2026-07-29 · Marketing communication — not investment advice

Marina View Beachfront Residences — the financial outlook.

Modelled asset: Unit D14 — 2-bed, 72 m² + 123 m² garden (Level 2) · €478,500 · Home & investment — 40% below the €800k Attica Golden-Visa tier · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. March 2028 (vendor-stated).

View the development

Marina View pairs East Attica coastal living with a private 123 m² garden on a new-build two-bed — space few Athens apartments can offer. On the current schedule (May 2026), 5 of the 15 residences remain available — 4 reserved, 6 sold. Asking rents of €750–€900/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~1.0% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). (Spitogatos SPI: the adjacent East Attica coast ran ~5.6%/yr, 2018–2024 — local context.) If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 9.6% (€749,893 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it shows €-12,319 (-0.2% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. At €478,500 this is a home-and-investment purchase priced 40% below the €800,000 Attica Golden-Visa tier — it does not by itself secure the Golden Visa (Law 5100/2024, art. 64; this unit is 72 m² vs the required ≥120 m²); the desk sources qualifying options separately.

Ten-year IRR — reference case
9.6%
At the recent index rate (+10.0%/yr) · 0%-growth case -0.2%. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stabilised cashflow
1.0% p.a.
First stabilised year, net of all costs; rises with indexation · 0.9% p.a. ten-year average
Capital appreciation
+10.0% p.a.
Recorded index, annualised over the last 5 years (+61% cumulative) · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 (bankofgreece.gr)
Net in → net out
€508,541 → €1,258,434
Ten years at the recent historical rate · €496,222 in the 0%-growth case
Capital growth — the historical record

Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative; nearest official series to East Attica): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance. Local context: Spitogatos SPI, adjacent East Attica coast: +39.1% cumulative 2018–2024 (≈5.6%/yr).

Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.

Rental comparables — Porto Rafti / Markopoulo, East Attica, Greece (asking)
2-bed, 70m², Evangelistrias, Markopoulo — findallrentals.com · 2-bed€750/mo
2-bed, 110m², Athinon 6, Markopoulo — findallrentals.com lis · 2-bed€900/mo
3-bed, 120m², Efedron Polemiston 8, Markopoulo — findallrent · 3-bed€1,000/mo
3-bed, 120m², Kokoyini, Markopoulo — findallrentals.com list · 3-bed€1,150/mo

Base case €825/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing.

Acquisition — two stacks, both in full
Property price€478,500
Transfer tax 3.09% (new-build VAT suspended — verify per unit)€14,786
Notary & land registry (~1.7%)€8,135
Legal (~1.2% + 24% VAT)€7,120
Agent & marketer fees charged to the buyer€nil
Property investment basis€508,541
Purchase support & advisory — one-off, independent of the asset
Kestrel advisory & coordination fee€10,000
Greek bank account, AFM tax number & remittance costs (indicative)€350
Apostilles, translations & clearance certificates (indicative)€400
Purchase support total€10,750

No Golden-Visa application arises from this purchase alone: the post-2024 rules (Law 5100/2024, art. 64) require a single property of ≥€800,000 in Attica with ≥120 m², and combining is no longer permitted; the desk quotes qualifying options separately, confirmed in writing.

Annual cash flow — ten-year hold, reference case — exit at the recent historical rate (+10.0%/yr); rents at the Eurostat record (pre-tax, EUR)
YearRentMgmtRe-letFixedMaint.NetYield
2026 — acquisition−€508,541
2027 — construction−396−€396
2028€4,185−335−410−1,154−2,440−€1540.0%
2029€8,763−701−430−1,177−2,489€3,9660.8%
2030€10,255−820−450−1,200−2,539€5,2461.0%
2031€10,737−859−471−1,224−2,590€5,5931.1%
2032€11,241−899−493−1,249−2,642€5,9581.2%
2033€11,770−942−516−1,274−2,694€6,3441.2%
2034€12,323−986−540−1,299−2,748€6,7501.3%
2035€12,902−1,032−566−1,325−2,803€7,1761.4%
2036€13,508−1,081−592−1,352−2,859€7,6241.5%
2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yrSale €1,241,106 less selling costs €30,779€1,210,327
Ten-year resultNet in €508,541 → net out €1,258,434 · total pre-tax profit €749,893IRR 9.6%
0%-growth case0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €466,633 · net out €496,222 · profit €-12,319IRR -0.2%
Ten-year IRR sensitivity — rent band × price growth
+0%/yr+2%/yr+4%/yr
Rent low (€750)-0.4%1.6%3.5%
Rent mid (€825)-0.2%1.7%3.6%
Rent high (€900)-0.1%1.8%3.7%
Assumption register — base case
Asking-to-achieved rent haircut5%
Stabilised occupancy (incl. voids)95%
First-let year ramp85%
Management fee on collected rent8%
Maintenance reserve (of price, p.a.)0.5%
Re-letting cost (months rent, p.a.)0.5
Fixed costs, year 1 (communal · insurance · local tax)€1,131/yr
Downside case — capital growth · rent0%/yr · +0.0%/yr
Rent indexation — reference case+4.7%/yr (Eurostat rent HICP, Greece: +4.7%/yr avg 2021–2025)
Running-cost indexation (both cases)+2.0%/yr
Furnishing & fit-outVendor inclusions — confirmed per unit before reservation
Exit costs at sale (year 10)2% + VAT (≈2.48%)
Income during constructionNone (delivery 2028)
Basis for return metricsProperty stack, pre-tax
The document

Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.

The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.

Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.

This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com