Lopes Residences — the financial outlook.
Modelled asset: Unit G1 — 1-bed, 59 m² + 16 m² garden (ground) · €300,000 · Golden Visa — every residence qualifies via the €250,000 conversion route · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Q1 2027 (vendor-stated).
Lopes sits in Paiania's airport corridor at an entry price of exactly €300,000 — a new-build one-bed with its own 16 m² garden. On the current schedule (June 2026), 6 of the 11 residences remain available — 5 sold. A verified €779/month one-bed comparable anchors a modelled €600–€850 band (high = a modest new-build premium estimate, not a listing), supporting a net yield stabilising toward ~1.6% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). (Spitogatos SPI: the adjacent East Attica coast ran ~5.6%/yr, 2018–2024 — local context.) If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 10.2% (€495,866 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €11,879 (0.4% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. Every Lopes residence qualifies for the Greek Golden Visa under the €250,000 conversion route (Law 5100/2024) — the development is delivered under the conversion tier, so the €800,000 / ≥120 m² Attica threshold does not apply; the desk confirms each family's eligibility in writing before reservation.
Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative; nearest official series): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance. Local context: Spitogatos SPI, adjacent East Attica coast: +39.1% cumulative 2018–2024 (≈5.6%/yr).
Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.
Base case €779/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing. High band = estimated premium over the verified €779/58 m² one-bed comp, not a listing.
Golden-Visa application costs are modelled in full — every Lopes residence qualifies under the €250,000 conversion route (Law 5100/2024), and the desk confirms your family's eligibility in writing before reservation. Recurring residence maintenance, excluded from the asset cash flow: private health cover ~€700/yr (couple, ~€350 pp).
| Year | Rent | Mgmt | Re-let | Fixed | Maint. | Net | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 — acquisition | −€318,834 | — | |||||
| 2027 | €3,774 | −302 | −370 | −1,300 | −1,500 | €302 | 0.1% |
| 2028 | €7,903 | −632 | −387 | −1,326 | −1,530 | €4,028 | 1.3% |
| 2029 | €9,248 | −740 | −406 | −1,353 | −1,561 | €5,188 | 1.6% |
| 2030 | €9,683 | −775 | −425 | −1,380 | −1,592 | €5,511 | 1.7% |
| 2031 | €10,138 | −811 | −445 | −1,407 | −1,624 | €5,851 | 1.8% |
| 2032 | €10,614 | −849 | −466 | −1,435 | −1,656 | €6,208 | 1.9% |
| 2033 | €11,113 | −889 | −487 | −1,464 | −1,689 | €6,584 | 2.1% |
| 2034 | €11,636 | −931 | −510 | −1,493 | −1,723 | €6,979 | 2.2% |
| 2035 | €12,183 | −975 | −534 | −1,523 | −1,757 | €7,394 | 2.3% |
| 2036 | €12,755 | −1,020 | −559 | −1,554 | −1,793 | €7,829 | 2.5% |
| 2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yr | Sale €778,123 less selling costs €19,297 | €758,826 | — | ||||
| Ten-year result | Net in €318,834 → net out €814,700 · total pre-tax profit €495,866 | IRR 10.2% | — | ||||
| 0%-growth case | 0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €292,560 · net out €330,713 · profit €11,879 | IRR 0.4% | — | ||||
| +0%/yr | +2%/yr | +4%/yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent low (€600) | -0.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% |
| Rent mid (€779) | 0.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% |
| Rent high (€850) | 0.6% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.
The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.
Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.
This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com