Lopes Residences — the financial outlook.
Modelled asset: Unit G1 — 1-bed, 59 m² + 16 m² garden (ground) · €300,000 · Golden Visa — offered on the €250,000 change-of-use category; the conversion evidence is obtained before reservation · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. December 2026 (developer schedule, confirmed on site 23 Aug 2026).
Lopes sits in Paiania's airport corridor at an entry price of exactly €300,000 — a new-build one-bed with its own 16 m² garden. On the current schedule (23 August 2026), 5 of the 11 residences remain available — 6 reserved. A verified €779/month one-bed comparable anchors a modelled €600–€850 band (high = a modest new-build premium estimate, not a listing), supporting a net yield stabilising toward ~1.5% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). (Spitogatos SPI: the adjacent East Attica coast ran ~5.6%/yr, 2018–2024 — local context.) If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 10.3% (€500,652 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €16,627 (0.5% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. The developer states that every Lopes residence is eligible under the Golden Visa's €250,000 change-of-use category (Law 5100/2024 art. 64), which carries no size or location floor; the desk obtains the change-of-use permit and the engineer's technical report, and confirms eligibility in writing, before reservation.
Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative; nearest official series): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance. Local context: Spitogatos SPI, adjacent East Attica coast: +39.1% cumulative 2018–2024 (≈5.6%/yr).
Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.
Base case €779/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing. High band = estimated premium over the verified €779/58 m² one-bed comp, not a listing.
Golden-Visa application costs are modelled in full. Recurring residence maintenance, excluded from the asset cash flow: private health cover ~€700/yr (couple, ~€350 pp). The €250,000 category is a completed change of use from non-residential to residential: the change must be completed before the application is filed and must post-date 5 April 2024, the building must have had a non-residential use when Law 5100/2024 came into force on that date, and Circular 1/2026 allows the category to be used only once per property. Short-letting is prohibited at every Golden-Visa tier; the penalty is revocation of the permit and a fixed €50,000 fine. Kestrel Private confirms the position for each unit in writing before it is relied on.
| Year | Rent | Mgmt | Re-let | Fixed | Maint. | Net | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 — acquisition | −€318,376 | — | |||||
| 2027 | €7,549 | −604 | −370 | −1,300 | −1,500 | €3,775 | 1.2% |
| 2028 | €8,833 | −707 | −387 | −1,326 | −1,530 | €4,883 | 1.5% |
| 2029 | €9,248 | −740 | −406 | −1,353 | −1,561 | €5,188 | 1.6% |
| 2030 | €9,683 | −775 | −425 | −1,380 | −1,592 | €5,511 | 1.7% |
| 2031 | €10,138 | −811 | −445 | −1,407 | −1,624 | €5,851 | 1.8% |
| 2032 | €10,614 | −849 | −466 | −1,435 | −1,656 | €6,208 | 1.9% |
| 2033 | €11,113 | −889 | −487 | −1,464 | −1,689 | €6,584 | 2.1% |
| 2034 | €11,636 | −931 | −510 | −1,493 | −1,723 | €6,979 | 2.2% |
| 2035 | €12,183 | −975 | −534 | −1,523 | −1,757 | €7,394 | 2.3% |
| 2036 | €12,755 | −1,020 | −559 | −1,554 | −1,793 | €7,829 | 2.5% |
| 2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yr | Sale €778,123 less selling costs €19,297 | €758,826 | — | ||||
| Ten-year result | Net in €318,376 → net out €819,028 · total pre-tax profit €500,652 | IRR 10.3% | — | ||||
| 0%-growth case | 0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €292,560 · net out €335,003 · profit €16,627 | IRR 0.5% | — | ||||
| +0%/yr | +2%/yr | +4%/yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent low (€600) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| Rent mid (€779) | 0.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
| Rent high (€850) | 0.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% |
Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.
The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.
Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office, cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.
This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the trading name of Kestrel Private Advisory (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. You are free to acquire a property from any source on the same engagement terms; where you do, we set out in writing what we have verified and what we have not. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com