Voula Residences — the financial outlook.
Modelled asset: Unit G1 — 3-bed, 133.5 m² net, ground floor (development from €530,000; unit prices on application) · €530,000 · Golden-Visa conditional — three residences meet the 120 m² test; qualifies only at ≥€800,000 · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Stated Jan 2026 — completion unverified.
Voula is the only Greek development in this portfolio built for the Golden Visa itself: three residences meet the required 120 m² size test and may qualify at the €800,000+ threshold, set on the Athens Riviera. Asking rents of €2,240–€2,500/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~3.5% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 11.9% (€1,014,007 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €136,229 (2.5% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. Three residences (G1 133.5 m², B1 142.7 m², B2 135.3 m² net) meet the Golden-Visa 120 m² size test and may qualify if the chosen unit is priced ≥€800,000 (prices on application) — the desk confirms in writing before commitment.
Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.
Base case €2,370/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing. One comparable is sourced from adjacent Glyfada where like-for-like local stock was insufficient — ceiling reference only.
As modelled at €530,000 this unit does not itself reach the Golden-Visa threshold, so no GV costs are charged here. If a qualifying unit (single property ≥€800,000, ≥120 m² — G1/B1/B2 meet the size test; prices on application) is confirmed in writing, the GV stack applies instead: Kestrel €10,000 + government €2,150 (investor €2,000, spouse €150) + counsel ~€2,500 + bank/apostilles ~€750 ≈ €15,400 all-in.
| Year | Rent | Mgmt | Re-let | Fixed | Maint. | Net | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 — acquisition | −€563,273 | — | |||||
| 2027 | €22,965 | −1,837 | −1,126 | −980 | −2,650 | €16,372 | 2.9% |
| 2028 | €26,873 | −2,150 | −1,179 | −1,000 | −2,703 | €19,841 | 3.5% |
| 2029 | €28,137 | −2,251 | −1,234 | −1,020 | −2,757 | €20,875 | 3.7% |
| 2030 | €29,459 | −2,357 | −1,292 | −1,040 | −2,812 | €21,958 | 3.9% |
| 2031 | €30,843 | −2,467 | −1,353 | −1,061 | −2,868 | €23,094 | 4.1% |
| 2032 | €32,293 | −2,583 | −1,416 | −1,082 | −2,926 | €24,286 | 4.3% |
| 2033 | €33,811 | −2,705 | −1,483 | −1,104 | −2,984 | €25,535 | 4.5% |
| 2034 | €35,400 | −2,832 | −1,553 | −1,126 | −3,044 | €26,845 | 4.8% |
| 2035 | €37,064 | −2,965 | −1,626 | −1,148 | −3,105 | €28,220 | 5.0% |
| 2036 | €38,806 | −3,104 | −1,702 | −1,171 | −3,167 | €29,662 | 5.3% |
| 2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yr | Sale €1,374,684 less selling costs €34,092 | €1,340,592 | — | ||||
| Ten-year result | Net in €563,273 → net out €1,577,280 · total pre-tax profit €1,014,007 | IRR 11.9% | — | ||||
| 0%-growth case | 0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €516,856 · net out €699,502 · profit €136,229 | IRR 2.5% | — | ||||
| +0%/yr | +2%/yr | +4%/yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent low (€2,240) | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% |
| Rent mid (€2,370) | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% |
| Rent high (€2,500) | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% |
Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.
The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.
Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.
This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com