Kestrel Research · Financial Outlook · 2026-07-29 · Marketing communication — not investment advice

Voula Residences — the financial outlook.

Modelled asset: Unit G1 — 3-bed, 133.5 m² net, ground floor (development from €530,000; unit prices on application) · €530,000 · Golden-Visa conditional — three residences meet the 120 m² test; qualifies only at ≥€800,000 · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Stated Jan 2026 — completion unverified.

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Voula is the only Greek development in this portfolio built for the Golden Visa itself: three residences meet the required 120 m² size test and may qualify at the €800,000+ threshold, set on the Athens Riviera. Asking rents of €2,240–€2,500/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~3.5% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 11.9% (€1,014,007 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €136,229 (2.5% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. Three residences (G1 133.5 m², B1 142.7 m², B2 135.3 m² net) meet the Golden-Visa 120 m² size test and may qualify if the chosen unit is priced ≥€800,000 (prices on application) — the desk confirms in writing before commitment.

Ten-year IRR — reference case
11.9%
At the recent index rate (+10.0%/yr) · 0%-growth case 2.5%. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stabilised cashflow
3.5% p.a.
First stabilised year, net of all costs; rises with indexation · 4.2% p.a. ten-year average
Capital appreciation
+10.0% p.a.
Recorded index, annualised over the last 5 years (+61% cumulative) · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 (bankofgreece.gr)
Net in → net out
€563,273 → €1,577,280
Ten years at the recent historical rate · €699,502 in the 0%-growth case
Capital growth — the historical record

Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.

Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.

Rental comparables — Voula, Athens Riviera, Greece (asking)
2-bed, 85m², Voula (Spetson 78, Dikigoriká) — furnished, ele · 2-bed€1,200/mo
2-bed, 72m², Voula (Odysseos 24, Δικηγορικά/Dikigoriká) — ne · 2-bed€2,000/mo
3-bed, 126m², Voula (Leoforos Vasileos Pavlou 37, centre) — · 3-bed€2,240/mo
3-bed, 165m², Glyfada (Kato Glyfada, centre) — renovated 202 · 3-bed€2,500/mo

Base case €2,370/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing. One comparable is sourced from adjacent Glyfada where like-for-like local stock was insufficient — ceiling reference only.

Acquisition — two stacks, both in full
Property price€530,000
Transfer tax 3.09% (new-build VAT suspended — verify per unit)€16,377
Notary & land registry (~1.7%)€9,010
Legal (~1.2% + 24% VAT)€7,886
Agent & marketer fees charged to the buyer€nil
Property investment basis€563,273
Purchase support & advisory — one-off, independent of the asset
Kestrel advisory & coordination fee€10,000
Greek bank account, AFM tax number & remittance costs (indicative)€350
Apostilles, translations & clearance certificates (indicative)€400
Purchase support total€10,750

As modelled at €530,000 this unit does not itself reach the Golden-Visa threshold, so no GV costs are charged here. If a qualifying unit (single property ≥€800,000, ≥120 m² — G1/B1/B2 meet the size test; prices on application) is confirmed in writing, the GV stack applies instead: Kestrel €10,000 + government €2,150 (investor €2,000, spouse €150) + counsel ~€2,500 + bank/apostilles ~€750 ≈ €15,400 all-in.

Annual cash flow — ten-year hold, reference case — exit at the recent historical rate (+10.0%/yr); rents at the Eurostat record (pre-tax, EUR)
YearRentMgmtRe-letFixedMaint.NetYield
2026 — acquisition−€563,273
2027€22,965−1,837−1,126−980−2,650€16,3722.9%
2028€26,873−2,150−1,179−1,000−2,703€19,8413.5%
2029€28,137−2,251−1,234−1,020−2,757€20,8753.7%
2030€29,459−2,357−1,292−1,040−2,812€21,9583.9%
2031€30,843−2,467−1,353−1,061−2,868€23,0944.1%
2032€32,293−2,583−1,416−1,082−2,926€24,2864.3%
2033€33,811−2,705−1,483−1,104−2,984€25,5354.5%
2034€35,400−2,832−1,553−1,126−3,044€26,8454.8%
2035€37,064−2,965−1,626−1,148−3,105€28,2205.0%
2036€38,806−3,104−1,702−1,171−3,167€29,6625.3%
2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yrSale €1,374,684 less selling costs €34,092€1,340,592
Ten-year resultNet in €563,273 → net out €1,577,280 · total pre-tax profit €1,014,007IRR 11.9%
0%-growth case0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €516,856 · net out €699,502 · profit €136,229IRR 2.5%
Ten-year IRR sensitivity — rent band × price growth
+0%/yr+2%/yr+4%/yr
Rent low (€2,240)2.3%4.0%5.8%
Rent mid (€2,370)2.5%4.2%6.0%
Rent high (€2,500)2.7%4.4%6.2%
Assumption register — base case
Asking-to-achieved rent haircut5%
Stabilised occupancy (incl. voids)95%
First-let year ramp85%
Management fee on collected rent8%
Maintenance reserve (of price, p.a.)0.5%
Re-letting cost (months rent, p.a.)0.5
Fixed costs, year 1 (communal · insurance · local tax)€980/yr
Downside case — capital growth · rent0%/yr · +0.0%/yr
Rent indexation — reference case+4.7%/yr (Eurostat rent HICP, Greece: +4.7%/yr avg 2021–2025)
Running-cost indexation (both cases)+2.0%/yr
Furnishing & fit-outVendor inclusions — confirmed per unit before reservation
Exit costs at sale (year 10)2% + VAT (≈2.48%)
Income during constructionFrom year one
Basis for return metricsProperty stack, pre-tax
The document

Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.

The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.

Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.

This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com