Kestrel Research · Financial Outlook · 2026-07-29 · Marketing communication — not investment advice

Piraeus Port Project — the financial outlook.

Modelled asset: 1–2 bed apartment (from-price unit) · €250,000 · Home & investment — 69% below the €800k Attica Golden-Visa tier · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Q4 2027 (vendor-stated).

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At €250,000, Piraeus Port Project is the lowest entry price in this entire portfolio — inside the same Athens market Bank of Greece data show up 61.1% over the last five years (2021–2025). Asking rents of €860–€1,030/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~1.9% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: bankofgreece.gr data shows 10.0% a year over the last five (Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025; latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026). If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 10.3% (€420,589 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €10,762 (0.4% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. From €250,000 — 69% below the €800,000 Attica Golden-Visa tier — this is a home-and-investment purchase; it does not by itself secure the Golden Visa (Law 5100/2024, art. 64; a single property of ≥€800,000 and ≥120 m² required); the desk sources qualifying options separately.

Ten-year IRR — reference case
10.3%
At the recent index rate (+10.0%/yr) · 0%-growth case 0.4%. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stabilised cashflow
1.9% p.a.
First stabilised year, net of all costs; rises with indexation · 2.0% p.a. ten-year average
Capital appreciation
+10.0% p.a.
Recorded index, annualised over the last 5 years (+61% cumulative) · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 (bankofgreece.gr)
Net in → net out
€265,695 → €686,284
Ten years at the recent historical rate · €276,457 in the 0%-growth case
Capital growth — the historical record

Bank of Greece — Athens apartments, 2021–2025 (+61.1% cumulative): 10.0% p.a. over five years · latest +5.2% Athens, Q1 2026 · source bankofgreece.gr. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.

Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.

Rental comparables — piraeus (asking)
2-bed, 70m², built 2025 — Piraeus (Pasalimani / Marina Zeas) · 2-bed€990/mo
2-bed, 66m², built 2025 — Piraeus (Pasalimani / Marina Zeas) · 2-bed€880/mo
2-bed, 63m², built 2025 — Piraeus (Pasalimani / Marina Zeas) · 2-bed€860/mo
1-bed, 45m², built 2024 — Piraeus (Evangelistria) · 1-bed€770/mo

Base case €935/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing.

Acquisition — two stacks, both in full
Property price€250,000
Transfer tax 3.09% (new-build VAT suspended — verify per unit)€7,725
Notary & land registry (~1.7%)€4,250
Legal (~1.2% + 24% VAT)€3,720
Agent & marketer fees charged to the buyer€nil
Property investment basis€265,695
Purchase support & advisory — one-off, independent of the asset
Kestrel advisory & coordination fee€10,000
Greek bank account, AFM tax number & remittance costs (indicative)€350
Apostilles, translations & clearance certificates (indicative)€400
Purchase support total€10,750

No Golden-Visa application arises from this purchase alone: the post-2024 rules (Law 5100/2024, art. 64) require a single property of ≥€800,000 in Attica with ≥120 m², and combining is no longer permitted; the desk quotes qualifying options separately, confirmed in writing.

Annual cash flow — ten-year hold, reference case — exit at the recent historical rate (+10.0%/yr); rents at the Eurostat record (pre-tax, EUR)
YearRentMgmtRe-letFixedMaint.NetYield
2026 — acquisition−€265,695
2027€4,530−362−444−3,310−1,250−€836-0.3%
2028€9,486−759−465−3,376−1,275€3,6111.4%
2029€11,100−888−487−3,444−1,301€4,9801.9%
2030€11,622−930−510−3,513−1,327€5,3422.0%
2031€12,168−973−534−3,583−1,353€5,7252.2%
2032€12,740−1,019−559−3,655−1,380€6,1272.3%
2033€13,339−1,067−585−3,728−1,408€6,5512.5%
2034€13,966−1,117−613−3,802−1,436€6,9982.6%
2035€14,622−1,170−641−3,878−1,465€7,4682.8%
2036€15,309−1,225−671−3,956−1,494€7,9633.0%
2036 — exit @ +10.0%/yrSale €648,436 less selling costs €16,081€632,355
Ten-year resultNet in €265,695 → net out €686,284 · total pre-tax profit €420,589IRR 10.3%
0%-growth case0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €243,800 · net out €276,457 · profit €10,762IRR 0.4%
Ten-year IRR sensitivity — rent band × price growth
+0%/yr+2%/yr+4%/yr
Rent low (€860)0.2%2.0%3.9%
Rent mid (€935)0.4%2.3%4.2%
Rent high (€1,030)0.7%2.6%4.4%
Assumption register — base case
Asking-to-achieved rent haircut5%
Stabilised occupancy (incl. voids)95%
First-let year ramp85%
Management fee on collected rent8%
Maintenance reserve (of price, p.a.)0.5%
Re-letting cost (months rent, p.a.)0.5
Fixed costs, year 1 (communal · insurance · local tax)€3,310/yr
Downside case — capital growth · rent0%/yr · +0.0%/yr
Rent indexation — reference case+4.7%/yr (Eurostat rent HICP, Greece: +4.7%/yr avg 2021–2025)
Running-cost indexation (both cases)+2.0%/yr
Furnishing & fit-outVendor inclusions — confirmed per unit before reservation
Exit costs at sale (year 10)2% + VAT (≈2.48%)
Income during constructionNone (delivery 2027)
Basis for return metricsProperty stack, pre-tax
The document

Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.

The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.

Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.

This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com