Bluebell House — the financial outlook.
Modelled asset: 3-bed detached house, €370,000 · €370,000 + VAT · PR-eligible (≥€300,000 excl. VAT) · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Stated Sep 2025 — completion unverified.
Bluebell House is the only detached house in this portfolio priced at the Cyprus PR entry level — a real house, not a stacked apartment or beachfront villa, at €370,000, modelled to earn rent from year one on the vendor-stated (not independently verified) September 2025 completion. Asking rents of €1,500–€2,000/month — each a live, dated comparable, not a guaranteed rent — support a net yield stabilising toward ~2.8% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: centralbank.cy RPPI data shows 6.2% a year over the last five (CBC RPPI — Cyprus overall, 2021Q1–2026Q1; latest +7.5% y-o-y 2026Q1). If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 6.6% (€351,775 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €26,625 (0.7% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. PR-eligible (≥€300,000 excl. VAT); the residence programme (€13,890 all-in) is costed separately below and is independent of how the asset performs — the residence outcome is subject to approval and the programme's requirements.
CBC RPPI — Cyprus overall, 2021Q1–2026Q1 (conservative; house segment slower than apartments): 6.2% p.a. over five years · latest +7.5% y-o-y 2026Q1 · source centralbank.cy RPPI. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.
Base case €1,800/mo less a 5% asking-to-achieved haircut at 95% stabilised occupancy. Every comparable is a live, verified listing.
Recurring (excluded from the asset cash flow): private health cover ~€600/yr couple. Reg 6(2) income to demonstrate: €65,000/yr secured from abroad (couple).
| Year | Rent | Mgmt | Re-let | Fixed | Maint. | Net | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 — acquisition | −€444,703 | — | |||||
| 2027 | €17,442 | −1,395 | −855 | −3,115 | −1,850 | €10,227 | 2.3% |
| 2028 | €20,215 | −1,617 | −887 | −3,177 | −1,887 | €12,647 | 2.8% |
| 2029 | €20,963 | −1,677 | −919 | −3,241 | −1,925 | €13,201 | 3.0% |
| 2030 | €21,739 | −1,739 | −953 | −3,306 | −1,963 | €13,778 | 3.1% |
| 2031 | €22,543 | −1,803 | −989 | −3,372 | −2,002 | €14,377 | 3.2% |
| 2032 | €23,377 | −1,870 | −1,025 | −3,439 | −2,043 | €15,000 | 3.4% |
| 2033 | €24,242 | −1,939 | −1,063 | −3,508 | −2,083 | €15,649 | 3.5% |
| 2034 | €25,139 | −2,011 | −1,103 | −3,578 | −2,125 | €16,322 | 3.7% |
| 2035 | €26,069 | −2,086 | −1,143 | −3,650 | −2,168 | €17,022 | 3.8% |
| 2036 | €27,034 | −2,163 | −1,186 | −3,723 | −2,211 | €17,751 | 4.0% |
| 2036 — exit @ +6.2%/yr | Sale €674,587 less selling costs €24,083 | €650,504 | — | ||||
| Ten-year result | Net in €444,703 → net out €796,478 · total pre-tax profit €351,775 | IRR 6.6% | — | ||||
| 0%-growth case | 0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €356,791 · net out €471,328 · profit €26,625 | IRR 0.7% | — | ||||
| +0%/yr | +2%/yr | +4%/yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent low (€1,500) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% |
| Rent mid (€1,800) | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| Rent high (€2,000) | 1.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.
The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.
Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.
This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com