Kestrel Research · Financial Outlook · 2026-07-29 · Marketing communication — not investment advice

Aqua Breeze Beachfront Villas — the financial outlook.

Modelled asset: Villa 1 — 5-bed beachfront, ~300 m² building on a 588 m² plot · €2,884,000 + VAT · PR-eligible; villa modelled on its own operating profile · ten-year hold, purchase 2026, exit 2036. Operating (licensed holiday rental).

View the development

Aqua Breeze is the only beachfront villa in this portfolio — and the only asset already trading, operating under Cyprus short-let licence No. 0011846. Both villas on the current schedule (June 2026) are available. The income basis is the villa's own short-let operation — indicative ADR $740–$815 (≈€647–€713, ECB rate 17 Jul 2026) at a 40–50% planning occupancy, not confirmed peak-season pricing — supporting a net yield stabilising toward ~2.5% on the full acquisition cost. The reference case assumes the market's recorded rate simply continues — not our forecast: centralbank.cy RPPI data shows 5.3% a year over the last five (CBC RPPI — Famagusta district overall, 2021Q1–2026Q1), though the latest reading is 0.0% y-o-y 2026Q1 — a deceleration we disclose, not smooth over. If that rate held — with rents indexed to the recorded rent record — the ten-year hold would return 5.5% (€2,190,203 pre-tax, net of exit costs). In a 0%-growth case — prices and rents flat, costs still rising — it still nets €107,734 (0.3% IRR). Past performance is not a guide to the future. PR-eligible; villa modelled on its own operating profile; the residence programme (€13,890 all-in) is costed separately below and is independent of how the asset performs — the residence outcome is subject to approval and the programme's requirements.

Ten-year IRR — reference case
5.5%
At the recent index rate (+5.3%/yr) · 0%-growth case 0.3%. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stabilised cashflow
2.5% p.a.
First stabilised year, net of all costs; rises with indexation · 2.8% p.a. ten-year average
Capital appreciation
+5.3% p.a.
Recorded index, annualised over the last 5 years (+29% cumulative) · latest 0.0% y-o-y 2026Q1 (flat) (centralbank.cy RPPI)
Net in → net out
€3,466,280 → €5,656,483
Ten years at the recent historical rate · €3,574,014 in the 0%-growth case
Capital growth — the historical record

CBC RPPI — Famagusta district overall, 2021Q1–2026Q1 (conservative): 5.3% p.a. over five years · latest 0.0% y-o-y 2026Q1 (flat) · source centralbank.cy RPPI. Past index performance is not a guide to future performance.

Track record: three completed sister developments in this portfolio — Anemone Residences (Limassol), Marina Bay and Arya Residences (Athenian Riviera) — are fully sold.

Rental comparables — Ayia Napa (Sandy Bay / Nissi) & Protaras, Cyprus (asking)
2-bed, 67m², Protaras — Dom.com.cy listing №120305 · 2-bed€950/mo
2-bed, 90m², Protaras (50m from sea) — Arena Properties · 2-bed€1,450/mo
2-bed, 120m², Ayia Napa — modern gated complex — Grand Prope · 2-bed€1,500/mo
2-bed, 115m², Ayia Napa — ULTRA-PRIME/marina tier, not part · 2-bed€4,350/mo

Long-let comparables above are area context only — they are not the basis for this villa's income. The modelled band derives from the villa's own rate positioning: ADR $740–$815 (≈€647–€713 at the ECB rate, 17 Jul 2026) at a 40–50% planning occupancy — a Kestrel assumption, not market-sourced; not confirmed peak-season pricing.

Acquisition — two stacks, both in full
Property price (excl. VAT)€2,884,000
VAT at 19% — investment case (a reduced rate can apply only to a qualifying primary residence)€547,960
Legal & conveyancing (~1% + VAT)€34,320
Agent & marketer fees charged to the buyer€nil
Property investment basis€3,466,280
Residence programme — one-off, independent of the asset
Kestrel advisory & coordination fee€10,000
Government fees — PR application + registrations (couple: €500 + 2 × €70)€640
Immigration-counsel allowance (indicative)€2,500
Cyprus bank account opening & fund-remittance costs (indicative)€350
Apostilles, translations & clearance certificates (indicative)€400
Residence programme (sunk, secures the family's status)€13,890

Recurring (excluded from the asset cash flow): private health cover ~€600/yr couple. Reg 6(2) income to demonstrate: €65,000/yr secured from abroad (couple).

Annual cash flow — ten-year hold, reference case — exit at the recent historical rate (+5.3%/yr); rents at the Eurostat record (pre-tax, EUR)
YearRentMgmtRe-letFixedMaint.NetYield
2026 — acquisition−€3,466,280
2027€99,917−7,993−6,000−14,420€71,5042.1%
2028€115,804−9,264−6,120−14,708€85,7122.5%
2029€120,089−9,607−6,242−15,003€89,2372.6%
2030€124,532−9,963−6,367−15,303€92,8992.7%
2031€129,140−10,331−6,495−15,609€96,7052.8%
2032€133,918−10,713−6,624−15,921€100,6602.9%
2033€138,873−11,110−6,757−16,239€104,7673.0%
2034€144,011−11,521−6,892−16,564€109,0343.1%
2035€149,339−11,947−7,030−16,895€113,4673.3%
2036€154,865−12,389−7,171−17,233€118,0723.4%
2036 — exit @ +5.3%/yrSale €4,847,481 less selling costs €173,055€4,674,426
Ten-year resultNet in €3,466,280 → net out €5,656,483 · total pre-tax profit €2,190,203IRR 5.5%
0%-growth case0% growth, rents held flat, costs still +2%/yr: sale nets €2,781,041 · net out €3,574,014 · profit €107,734IRR 0.3%
Ten-year IRR sensitivity — rent band × price growth
+0%/yr+2%/yr+4%/yr
Rent low (€7,873)-0.2%1.6%3.4%
Rent mid (€9,306)0.3%2.1%3.9%
Rent high (€10,839)0.9%2.6%4.3%
Assumption register — base case
Modelled short-let occupancy40–50% (planning assumption — not market-sourced)
Asking-haircut / long-let occupancy factorsNot applied — ADR-derived basis
First-let year ramp85%
Management fee on collected rent8%
Maintenance reserve (of price, p.a.)0.5%
Re-letting cost (months rent, p.a.)n/a (short-let basis)
Fixed costs, year 1 (communal · insurance · local tax)€6,000/yr
Downside case — capital growth · rent0%/yr · +0.0%/yr
Rent indexation — reference case+3.7%/yr (Eurostat rent HICP, Cyprus: +3.7%/yr avg 2021–2025)
Running-cost indexation (both cases)+2.0%/yr
Furnishing & fit-outVendor inclusions — confirmed per unit before reservation
Exit costs at sale (year 10)3% + VAT (≈3.57%)
Income during constructionFrom year one
Basis for return metricsProperty stack, pre-tax
The document

Take this analysis with you — the full Outlook note, as a single-page PDF.

The same model in the Kestrel Research document format, with the reference imagery and location plan. Sent against your details; the desk follows up personally.

Methodology. Evidence hierarchy: own operating actuals → named operating comparables → vendor claims (recorded, never the basis). Comparables are live asking rents, individually verified; the desk confirms figures on the ground. Cyprus office +357 95 110 463 · cyprus@kestrelprivate.com.

This Outlook is market commentary prepared by Kestrel Private (the advisory practice of 8T20 Capital (Pty) Ltd) for general information only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation. Figures are illustrative projections built from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently audited; rental comparables are asking rents at the date shown; projections are not forecasts of actual returns and actual outcomes will differ, possibly materially. Returns are shown before the buyer’s personal taxation and are computed on the property investment basis; residence-programme costs are disclosed separately in full and excluded from asset return metrics because they purchase the residence outcome itself. Property values and rents can fall as well as rise; past or comparable performance is not a guide to future performance. Recipients must obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before any decision. Disclosure: Kestrel Private may receive fees or commissions from developers or vendors of the properties referenced. Regulated legal, tax and immigration work is delivered by admitted local counsel. © 2026 Kestrel Private · kestrelprivate.com